This may come as a surprise to some.
Matheson is one of the most popular politicians in Utah and, by many accounts, he's winning his debates with Love.
But come November 6th, Matheson may still lose.
So, how is Love ahead and/or why might she win?
Let me count the ways.
1) The new 4th district is more than 60% Republican.
2) Love gave well received speeches at both the state GOP convention and at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida.
The latter helped bring in hundreds of thousands of dollars in new campaign contributions.
3) Love is a Romney family favorite in a year when Mitt Romney may capture something like, oh, 187% of the vote in Utah. This is expected to help other Utah Republicans down ticket.
4) Orrin Hatch is running this year. Hatch's get-out-the vote effort could also help other Utah Republicans.
5) Matheson may have picked the wrong district to run in. He's represented the 2nd District and lives there.
But, privately, both Democrats and Republicans are saying that Matheson may have had an easier race there.
As for the two candidates, Mia Love told ABC 4 that she is "honored and humbled by the support she's getting."
Matheson, meanwhile, told us he always knew the race would be close."
FOLLOW CHRIS VANOCUR ON TWITTER: @cvan4